normagirl9 wrote: "I agree that, strictly speaking, the highest EV is the correct choice, in the long run.."
The highest EV is the correct choice if you want to maximize EV, in the short or long run. Keep in mind that EV is the long term average.
If you want to minimize the number of hands it takes to double your bankroll, then Kelly strategy is the mathematically correct choice. Holding AKT2s and going for the flush instead of holding just AKTs is a typical Kelly strategy play. Someone who makes this play isn't necessarily "making the wrong choice", instead they may be playing Kelly strategy. Kelly strategy strongly considers the EV, but also considers the current bankroll and variance, and if done exactly also the other higher moments.
Moment (mathematics) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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