If you're playing 100.76% return FPDW for quarters, and playing perfectly at 1000 hands an hour, it's pretty simple math: denomination x number of coins played per hand x hands per hour x percent return in excess of 100%. In real numbers: $0.25 x 5 x 1000 x 0.76% (0.0076) = $9.50 per hour. Your "math" for $6-ish an hour is correct for 600-ish hands per hour.
The only way to increase the return on a game at a given denomination is to play more accurately or faster. Play slower, make less, play faster, make more if you don't make off-setting mistakes at the higher speed. Of course, if there's cash-back or other "tangential" ways to get more money for your play, that can be factored in, and if you want to assign a monetary value to your comps, if you get any, that can be considered as increased return as well. Personally, if I choose to assign a monetary value for comps, I assign the value to me, not the value to the casino -- e.g., if I get a $25 meal comped, but it's a meal I wouldn't ordinarily buy for $25, but might buy for $10, the monetary value for me is $10. While sandwich shops are pretty close to what I'd pay in "real life", I can get a steak dinner (including sides) for about $20-25 at a local restaurant that is quite good, while the steak alone (side ala carte) at Binion's steak house is I think nearly twice that.
I understand that you weren't thinking about the tax issues, but you really can't ignore that part -- if you do report ALL income, and use the session method, I don't know how to calculate what percentage of your sessions will likely be winners and what percentage will be losers, but with that information, you could calculate how much you'd probably have to pay in taxes. You'll probably pay enough in taxes that you're making less than minimum wage after taxes, if you're still ahead at all (yes, with taxes, it's possible to have a losing year and still owe money, so I assume it's possible to have a winning year and pay more in taxes than your net winnings). You can't ignore the taxes unless you choose not to pay them. Again, I'm from a state where the state tax is gross income, so you can't offset the winning sessions with your losses for state taxes, like you can for federal, and that makes a big difference.
Finally, you have to consider how much you can play. If you don't put in enough hours to get a reasonable likelihood of actually experiencing the 100.76% return (and what is "reasonable" is up to you to decide, but I'd think 90% chance would be reasonable to me), then just chance alone can make your "return" uncertain enough that you can't begin to consider VP as an alternative to work.
Again, I don't know the math for that consideration, but if you post your hands per hour, and how many hours a day you play (assuming you count a single day's play as a "session" for taxes), and how many days a year, and what your marginal federal tax rate is, and what your state tax situation is (rate, and whether or not you can offset wins with losses), someone here can do the math and tell you what your "real" after-tax income per hour would likely be. All this assumes no errors, which I personally believe is not a reasonable assumption for anyone, although from some of the posts here, and I have no data to dispute them, there are certainly those who can approximate perfect play closely enough to assume that rate of return for the purpose of calculations.
I seem to remember reading a LONG time ago that if you play 9/6 Jacks or Better at the quarter level and play 600 hands an hour, the cost of waiting for a royal is $35 an hour (the return is only about 98% for all the hands that don't end up with a royal flush) -- so the "cost of waiting" is also something you need to factor in to your playing decisions, I would think, at least in terms of determining how much money you need to take for a session.
--BG
====================
3b. Re: The "tool box" for pros in 2014?
For the record I do report ALL income, gambling and otherwise. But I wasn't intending for the conversation to go in that direction. The spirit of my questions really about maximizing hourly EV. By my count quarter FPDW is worth $6-ish dollars an hour (assuming a reasonable rate of hands/hour) Is my math wrong? There has to be way to increase that.
For the record I do report ALL income, gambling and otherwise. But I wasn't intending for the conversation to go in that direction. The spirit of my questions really about maximizing hourly EV. By my count quarter FPDW is worth $6-ish dollars an hour (assuming a reasonable rate of hands/hour) Is my math wrong? There has to be way to increase that.
__._,_.___
| Reply via web post | Reply to sender | Reply to group | Start a New Topic | Messages in this topic (14) |
.
__,_._,___
