I'm getting s different edge than your fig, neo. If the RF is at 3000/coin, a 6/5 5c JOB game has a 100.44% payback. With the 0.4% cashback, it's 100.84%.
Also, I calc the Var of a 1-unit bet with this payout schedule to be 226, a little smaller than your fig. For a bet of 5 nickels, the Var is 14.
Using my figs, the hourly EV including .4% cashback would be $1.67. The Kelly bankroll for the game is $6000, so you'll have to look for a smaller game if your bankroll drops below $6K!
"NO", the number of hands you need to play to be about 5/6 sure of being ahead at all, is 3,200,000. That's a daunting 4000 hours of play.
All of my figs ignore the fact that the RF jackpot is growing, but I don't think it will affect the figs much.
I found the distribution of results after a 10-hour day of play to be interesting:
1. You would virtually never win between $1 and $400.or between $800 and $1000, BUT you WOULD win between $400 and $800 16% of the time!
2. Most of the time (79%) you'd lose between $1 and $200.
3. 3% of the time you'd lose between $200 and $400, but almost never more than $400.
4. 2% of the time you'd win over $1000, which must be the times you hit 2 RF's during the 10 hours.
The reason you almost never win between $1 and $400 is that if you don't hit an RF, you're playing a game that's worse than 94%. No amount of small-hand luck can over come that. If you DO hit an RF, you get a $750 boost to bankroll, hence the 16% of the time that you end up between +$400 and +$800.
The reason you almost never lose more than $400 is that you would only be betting $2000 total in the 10 hours. It's tough to lose over 25% of your total coin-in over that many hands.
--Dunbar
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <neocacher@...> wrote:
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