RE: [vpFREE] big word used on 12/12 GWAE radio show

 

I'm not mathematically competent to debate NOTI on this subject. I sent the three posts in this thread (two by NOTI bookending one by me) to John Chang --- who was the one who used the reference to CE on the radio show in the first place. I asked if he had a comment that I could post here. Chang responded:


 
The VPfree poster is correct, in the context of fixed bet sizes that may be the case for video poker, and assuming Kelly=1. Knowing Kelly betting is actually pretty important, as William Poundstone shows in "Fortune's Formula".

I'm actually not sure how accurate the approximation CE=EV-variance/(2*kelly*bankroll) is for video poker, which has quite a large skew. For me, I think playing errors dominated the question of how much my video poker play was worth.

For blackjack, where you can choose your unit, it is optimal to choose a unit so that CE=.5 EV, regardless of the Kelly you choose.

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