Poker Poker Poker!: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column

Thanks, Dunbar ...

Relating my "gut estimate" to your stats, it's comforting that I wasn't far off the mark:

I suggested about a 40% likelihood of exceeding a final $2400 loss on $40k (diad) of $5 single line jb.

You indicate a 37% likelihood of exceeding a final $4000 loss on $50k of such play.

I imagine that the original premise risk was more like 30% (I'll consult my purchased copy of DRA when I'll get home :). Great tool!

- H.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:
>
> I'm not sure what the original scenario was, but here is the distribution of outcomes after playing 2000 hands of $5 9/6 JOB when starting with a $10K bankroll:
>
> FINAL BANK % CHANGE PROBABILITY
> 0 lose 100% 4%
> 1 - 1999 lose 80% to 99% 0%
> 2000 - 3999 lose 60% to 80% 1%
> 4000 - 5999 lose 40% to 60% 8%
> 6000 - 7999 lose 20% to 40% 26%
> 8000 - 9999 lose up to 20% 33%
> 10000 - 11999 win up to 20% 19%
> 12000 - 13999 win 20% to 40% 6%
> 14000 - 15999 win 40% to 60% 1%
> 16000 - 17999 win 60% to 80% 0%
> 18000 - 19999 win 80% to 99+% 0%
> 20000 + double or more 5%
>
> Here is what you get if you play 9/6 DDB instead:
>
> FINAL BANK % CHANGE PROBABILITY
> 0 lose 100% 4%
> 1 - 1999 lose 80% to 99% 6%
> 2000 - 3999 lose 60% to 80% 12%
> 4000 - 5999 lose 40% to 60% 15%
> 6000 - 7999 lose 20% to 40% 15%
> 8000 - 9999 lose up to 20% 13%
> 10000 - 11999 win up to 20% 9%
> 12000 - 13999 win 20% to 40% 7%
> 14000 - 15999 win 40% to 60% 5%
> 16000 - 17999 win 60% to 80% 3%
> 18000 - 19999 win 80% to 99+% 2%
> 20000 + double or more 9%
>
> (sorry if the formatting is a mess.)
>
> So, if you start with $10K,
> 40% of the time you will lose more than 20% of your bankroll in 2000 hands of 9/6 JOB.
> 52% of the time you will lose more than 20% of your bankroll in 2000 hands of 9/6 DDB.
>
> --Dunbar
>
> (I used DRA-VP for the calcs)
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@> wrote:
> >
> > Bob B succinctily responds to that claim ;)
> >
> > Your posts reflect a decent measure of common sense and rationality (which is why I bothered to probe your motivations for the $5 foray). But it's clear that thre's much fodder on these groups from which you can benefit.
> >
> > You suggest that most of your short session jb results stay within a 2%-4% loss cap. That would be rather exceptional. My gut reaction (from 15 years of play) would be that a 6% cap would cover 60% of 2000 hand sessions, with 10% loss experience hardly being an outlier (20% would be an outlier, but not unheard of).
> >
> > Software tools, such as VP for winners, provide an exceptional means bywhich to guage potential loss exposure when tackling a play that lies outside of your standard monetary risk exposure, and is well worth the investment.
> >
> > As far as potential venues for taking a Diamond in a day run, vpfree2.com is chock full of accessible alternatives. I would suggest that a something such as a multiplay $.25 machine (or perhaps 3-play $1) machine would be much more apt, in terms of bankroll risk. These are available in several venues.
> >
> > Researching alternative venues by browsing archived posts here and te harrahscasinos forum will offer some intel on where thr rewards for such play might be a bit richer.
> >
> > Frankly, I'm gonna speculaye that you benefit fron a guardian angel, who shied you away from the CLV $5 machines, before you found yourself heabily invested in an adverse session. (True, it would have been far kinder to just flop a RF for you ... But, I've yet to stumble on that type of leprachaun :)
> >
> > - H.
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "richard d" <cdgnpc@> wrote:
> > >
> > > You can stare at the stats but my $1 9/6 play never had anywhere near that swing. My typical $5-10k session is plus or minus $1-200. So I let the anecdotal trump them impirical. I am not the only guilty of that. I also had an idea of trying to make up that lost EV at a invitation only multiplier event.
> > > I live in NYC so my options are slimmer than in LV.
> >
>