Bob wrote: "Bayes' Theorem doesn't give any guidance on how to avoid our biases."
I disagree. Not all biases are bad, some are good and some are bad. Bayes' Theorem provides a way to judge the value of our biases and to adjust them should they need adjustment. So, fixed biases may be bad, such as the bias that no machines are fixed, which is obviously wrong because we know some machines were in fact fixed in the recent past and we know, or should know, that we should be very skeptical about anything involving casinos. I'm not saying that 50% of machines are fixed or flawed, but perhaps 1% or .1% or .01%, something like that. The same goes for table games dealers, 50% of them aren't capable of being card sharks, but perhaps 1% or .1% or .01% are. And of course some biases are in the player favor, those are good to find. It's the same as roulette wheels, most are fully balanced and totally unbiased, but some are not:
http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~klotz/rou.pdf
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator wrote:
>
> Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 1 JAN 2013
>
> "How Do You Convince Somebody?"
>
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0101.cfm
>
>
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