I've thought about this too and Bob may have had some information about a particular machine but I don't think that is required. The south point probably reports holds on machines in general categories like 5 dollar slots. You also have some idea of which machines in a given denom have higher returns. This can make the play positive expected value. Of course there is higher order uncertainty, that you can lose both because your estimates of the ev were wrong or because you run bad. Of course higher order uncertainty doesn't change the ev but it balloons your variance. Plus it creates a second guessing mindset.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:
>
> I'm left wondering how Bob could know what the holds were set at on the machines he played in order to come up with a theoretically positive play, and even if he thought he knew, why he wouldn't think the casino would change those holds for this particular promotion. And with the high amount of a top jackpot win, if hit, such a promotion wouldn't even be needed in order to come out ahead after that amount of play. I don't see the rationale on why this was such a good play.
>
>
> ----- Reply message -----
> From: "Luke Fuller" <kungalooosh@...>
>
> My favorite line from Mr. Dancer's article:
>
> "Had I hit a $20,000 or $40,000 jackpot I'd be doing fine."
>
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