I think this discussion can be helpful to any regular vp player who might try to duplicate Bob's effort somewhere and hope for better results.
The question is, did he KNOW FOR CERTAIN the hold on the machines he played, based on maybe inside information or from a published report of overall machine holds at those denominations, and would others be able to approach similar promotions with the same amount of "accuracy"? The next question is, advantage play requires absolute information prior to stepping into the ring. How is that even possible when going up against a slot machine--with one of the concerns being if the "known" hold % was changed because it can be? It just seems this was too much of an overall pot shot for a disciplined, expert video poker player.
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From: "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@yahoo.com>
I've thought about this too and Bob may have had some information about a particular machine but I don't think that is required. The south point probably reports holds on machines in general categories like 5 dollar slots. You also have some idea of which machines in a given denom have higher returns. This can make the play positive expected value. Of course there is higher order uncertainty, that you can lose both because your estimates of the ev were wrong or because you run bad. Of course higher order uncertainty doesn't change the ev but it balloons your variance. Plus it creates a second guessing mindset.
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