--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Rod Braswell <vpking05@...> wrote:
> I'm the guy who wrote some time back to say (tongue planted firmly
> in cheek) that you are the only one I know who "never, ever, loses".
> Yep.............. now I've taken my tongue out of my cheek, and
> firmly believe my previous statement.
Well, we've got a lot of mathematically-inclined people here... so we could probably take a stab at it... but we'd need to know what Coach's coin-in was for the weekend. Without that it's a shot in the dark.
We don't know how many 4OAKs Coach got, because he uses the arbitrary phrase "hit a quad here and there". But we do know that he scored Aces without a kicker at least once, 2s with a kicker three times, Aces with a kicker twice, and a Royal. We know there are at least three sets of "regular" quads, so for the purpose of estimating, let's stay conservative and say he hit only three. But wait... one of those Aces with kicker was dealt, as was one of the 2s with kicker. Hmm...
Wizard of Odds gives us the following per-hand analysis:
4OAK(nk) avg 1:613
AAAA(nk) avg 1:5,761
2222(k) avg 1:6,983
AAAA(k) avg 1:16,236
Royal avg 1:40,799
Dealt 2222(k) avg 1:54,145
Dealt AAAA(k) avg 1:216,580
Since Coach is 7* and from the frequency of his trip reports appears to go about once every two weeks, that's 26 trips per year. Since he plays video poker, that's a minimum $1m coin-in requirement, or about $40k/trip. The trip report lists $0.50 and $2.00 machines I believe, so let's average them to $1.25 x 5 credits = $6.25/spin. 40000/6.25 = 6,400 hands.
I'm going to ignore the 4OAK number since we don't know how many he really got. That means in 6,400 hands, the odds of hitting those numbers would be:
Qty 1 AAAA(nk) 1.11:1
Qty 2 2222(k) 1:2.17
Qty 1 AAAA(k) 1:2.56
Qty 1 Royal 1:6.25
Qty 1 Dealt 2222(k) 1:8.33
Qty 1 Dealt AAAA(k) 1:33.33
Of course all of these numbers could be totally incorrect based on coin-in, strategy changes, denominations played, etc.
Someone more mathematically-inclined than me should be able to figure out the overall odds of this outcome given the number of hands estimated played.
Yes, I'm bored, and no, these numbers may not even be accurate.
