A couple of points:
You're getting a 0.2% error rate on VPW. Your error rate in the casino will be worse, as casinos are notorius for sticky keys, bad spot lighting, free alcohol, noise levels over OSHA standards and other distractions. Try playing VPW again, but this time after a drink or two, with a spotlight shining on your display, with a cheap radio playing an annoying song really loud, and another cheap radio playing a different annoying song really loud, with a TV show or game for distraction, and a really uncomfortable chair, and see what error rate you get.
At 2-4 hours per week you are unlikely to ever get into any type of long term, so your results will be dominated by luck rather than skill, as long as you are ok with that. The N0 number is variance/edge/edge hands, you need to play more than that to get into the zone where skill is dominant over luck.
A key question to ask is: what are your goals for this gamble? If it is to win, it just doesn't look likely. If it is to just hang out in a casino, it's probably ok, although you might be better off just hanging out at the craps table or making a few sports bets or even penny or nickel keno. These days there are plenty of promotions and drawings and such that don't require any play at all, see if you can find them and play them instead, there is no downside risk to your bankroll, the only thing you waste is time. Casinos these days tend to penalize people who play the better video poker games, whether they win or lose, so often you'll find you get much better offers if you play something else, coin in is almost never a factor anymore, except that the less coin in you have the more likely it is you will get a better offer. The top cards might get you a line pass but they also are likely to get you backed off or no mailed from the better offers as well, unless you consistently lose 20K/year or more.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kimbaed1@..." <kimbaed1@...> wrote:
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> The point multiplier promos are only for limited hours, so I'll only be playing 2-4 hrs. per week. Bankroll is my main concern. I'm looking at a bankroll of $20,000, replenishable to the tune of $1000/month. On VPW, I play 800 hands/hr at 99.8% without penalty cards.
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> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
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> > Is bankroll a concern? The Kelly bankroll can be approximated by variance/edge bets, so under the Kelly system, a reduction in edge could be justified if there was a greater reduction in the corresponding variance. Likewise an increase in edge is possibly not justified if there is a greater increase in variance (it would depend on what your bankroll was). BTW, FWIW, for 9/7/5 double bonus plus 1% you're looking at an approximate Kelly bankroll of 28.6/.001=28,600 bets = $143,000 on five coin dollars. And N0 is 28.6/.001/.001= 28.6 million hands! All assuming near computer perfect play!
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