I really like this post of yours because it perfectly illustrates the exact same dynamics I talked about in the original post on heuristics.
Just like the air force instructors, here the casino employ has noticed something and his only flaw in thinking may be the direction of causation. He felt that casinos tighten machines when a jackpot gets high, without considering that a jackpot gets high because machines have been tight. "Have been tight" isn't the same thing as "are tight", but it's a distinction not all people can make.
It's perfectly normal on fair random machines for jackpots to to go long periods without being hit. Indeed, if this didn't happen we would be even more concerned about machines being truly random, since it's predicted by math.
What he seems to have fallen pray to is similar to what's known as the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, where you fire at the side of a barn and then draw the target after you're done shooting. He's waiting until after a period where the machines have taken in an unusual amount of money without paying out a jackpot, hence the high progressive, and assumed that the reason the machines have taken in so much money is because the jackpot is high.
It's a very good example, thanks for your input. ~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "casino_camper" <mac_mcclellan@...> wrote: Coming in late on this, but here's the most surprising one I've heard.
>
> Several years ago we were in Reno and playing a $1 progressive 8/5 BP that was up over $6k. Sitting next to me was a guy I met the year before. He had previously been a blackjack dealer and he knew all the dealers at this place. He played correctly, and we talked about a few adjustments based on the level of the progressive.
>
> He dropped about $500 and said he'd had enough for the night. I said something about it being expensive to chase these progressives and he replied "yeah, especially when they tighten them up as the jackpot gets higher". I thought he was joking and said "since you know so many people around here you should ask the fellow in the back room to flip the switch for you." "Oh no", he says, "they can't do it on individual players, they'd lose their gaming license, they just tighten the whole bank.". My jaw must have actually dropped open.
>
> Why does he believe this? My best guess is that he remembers those big losses while chasing progressives. Also maybe the seed was planted in his mind by someone who he thought was knowledgeable.
>
>
> Mac
> www.CasinoCamper.com
