Dave wrote:
>
> I don't think our slot machine action is @ .91 EV. Sure hope not.
> No way to tell but the state statistics has off-the-strip @ ~.94.
>
> We limit our slot machine action to three low jackpot progressive
> machines. Those are the types we were pointed to five years ago.
Thanks for the reply (which I abbreviated ... I'll let those interested refer back into the thread for the full context).
I'll try not too excessively dissect here, but if I understand correctly, you're giving 5% of daily $30K coin-in on these slots in order to improve your "survivability".
In the specific case where your host alerted you to the possibility of being cut from promotions without adding some slot play, there's little question the move was advisable. But I'd be loathe to adopt the strategy as a general precaution.
If you're going to add some slot play to your mix, certainly "off strip" LV is a reasonable venue in which to do it. And I'll credit your choice has being likely to have an ER of 95%. Still, that's a daily EV cost of $75, which is a .25% ER handicap against your $30K coin-in.
Your earlier estimate of this being a 20% EV cut would mean that you estimate your daily vp EV at $425. Were it that high, then everything appears quite rational. But, (again, reading between the lines), I would estimate your daily FP at $200-$250, and your overall vp ER (with points) at no higher than 100.2% (before factoring FP), or an additional EV of $60. On a combined EV of, say, $300, you're giving up 25% of your vp EV to slot play.
The numbers still look good, given your strong 1% ER vp advantage (though I'd deem the slot cost "of consequence"). For someone playing on a slimmer advantage, (say, even a cut to .75% ER), I'd deem the cost excessive and inadvisable except in reaction to a clear threat to offers.
Bottom line, I'm saying that while the slot play is clearly a smart move for you, I personally would be hesitant to suggest that others consider such a shift under general circumstances as a "survival" move. It's simply an expensive prospect.
(Should be clear, though, that I consider it fertile "food for thought" ... Thanks!)
- H.
