Marc wrote:
>I"m not trying to predict anything.I'm trying to jump in on a possible trend.A winning streak must start with a win and a losing streak must start with a loss.So,I wait for the first one and hope it's the start of a good streak.Like they say in the Stock Market,"The trend is your friend".
You're trying to predict how long the streak will last. "Hope" and
expected value have little, if anything, to do with each other. For
all I know, there might be predictable trends in the stock market, but
video poker machines are designed to be completely unpredictable. If
they are predictable, all theoretical payback percentages, including
that 9/6 Jacks or Better has a 99.54% payback, are wrong and would be
trumped by where, in the "streak," one is. What evidence do you have
that such streaks are predictable? Have you ever, for example,
analyzed your results of the next hand after, say, 7 wins in a row?
What would you estimate your advantage to be on the 8th hand? How
would such streaks be programmed into the machine? That sounds much
more complicated than programming them to be random and unpredictable.
Would each result be programmed to increase the probability of the
same result on the next hand?
