Tom,I have stated that my good results could very well be luck.Yes,and when things get really choppy,I don't do as well.I'm looking at EV as being built into whatever VP game I'm playing reguardless of any betting strategy that I use or the results of that strategy.It could very well be that in the long term I'm going to lose slightly less that the person playing 5 coin all time.If that's the way my long term results end up,so be it.I'm still playing at an average EV of over 99% which by AC standards is considered playable.Using the 1-5 shuffle enables me to play longer and limit some of the downside volitility when things are going against me.
-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Fri, Nov 4, 2011 10:01 pm
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins
> Using my (arbitrary)definition of Hot and Cold streaks; Let's say I just had 5 wins in a row then I lose 1 and drop to 1 coin.Now let's say the next 10 hands are losers,I'll save 4 coins per hand.If I just slow down my play and play 5 coin,I'll lose 5 coins per hand only more slowly.So I don't see how that's the same thing.
>
> Marc
Your 1 and 5 system probably would do better if there were always long streaks like that, even though you'll always be playing 1 coin on the first hand of a winning streak. But what if the results are less streaky and more choppy? If wins alternate with losses, won't you win when you're playing 1 coin and lose when you're playing 5 coins? You say you believe that such betting patterns don't change your EV, but you're acting as if you believe they do. Have you considered the possibility that your good results so far have been due to good luck rather than your system "working?" When you have a session that is unusually choppy and you do worse than you otherwise would have, even though you'll be tempted to think that your system isn't "working," any more, won't you then realize that when the choppiness / streakiness element is average, so will your results be?
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