--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Luke Fuller <kungalooosh@...> wrote:
>
> A few days ago, the individual progressives were $1,800+, $1,800+, >and $1,400+. But, I have seen them over $2,000 regularly.
>
> The dealt progressive was $9,600+ at the time I was playing a few >days ago. It hits fairly often. And, I've seen it over $25,000.
>
> I don't know what these amounts actually add to the 0.99 payback
> percentage. But, it seems to me that this play is often over 100%.
>
> BTW, there are two banks of ten machines (in each bank) with this >same game. Each bank has its own progressives. So, when one bank >of machines has lower progressives, I will play on the other bank of >machines.
>
> Maybe - according to Bob Dancer - there is more to a play being
> 'intelligent' than just having over 100% payback.
>
> On Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 10:23 AM, Dave <haaljo@...> wrote:
>
>
With the numbers you give it looks like a pretty good little play. The meters look to be fairly strong. I'd want to clock those meters though to see just how fast they are. I'd also want to verify that none of the quads have been chopped. Sometimes, on a bank like this, the generic quads could be chopped from 50 to 1 to 40 to 1. But for now I'm gonna go on the game being 9/7 Double Bonus.
I'll leave off the flopped royal for now. Just add the 3 royals together then divide be 3. Breakeven on 9/7 single line would be a $1441 royal. Breakeven on triple line would be an average royal of $1441. With the numbers you give the average royal is $1667. (1800+1800+1400=5000 divided by 3 = $1667).
Average royal of $1441 is breakeven but I think I would have to have a bare minimum average royal of $1600. I like that number as a bare minimum because the strategy per that number puts all the 3-card royals playing over all the high pairs (including Aces) and the 3-card flushes. This simplifies the strategy.
Average royal of $1600 puts the game at 100.37%. Then there is the flopped royal addon. To figure that out we have to do a couple of things. Let's say the 3 royals total to $4800 and the flopped royal pays $10,000. We have to subtract the $4800 from the $10,000 to get $5200. Then we have to multiply the flopped royal frequency (649,740) by the bet($3.75) to get $2,436,525. Then we divide $5200 by $2,436,525 to get .21%. Then we add the .21% to 100.37% to get 100.58%. Just remember that extra couple of tenths is long long term. If I were playing this bank alot I would just consider it a long term freeroll.
Theres a lot of variables in factoring in the meters. For starters I would only factor in one. Let's say the single line meters are traveling at .5%. Can I add the whole .5% to the play? The only way I could do that is if I played only when the bank is full of players. I think I would have to shave a couple tenths off it for the times I get snapped off when the meters get way high and the bank fills up.
The truth is, if I were gonna prey on this bank, I would have to do a lot more homework, breakpoints and all that stuff.
A strategy predicated on a $1600 royal puts the royal odds right at 34,000.
