Mickey,
Thank you for your detailed answer. And, thanks for making it easy for a
'non-numbers' person to understand.
BTW, the quads are not shorted. The full pay table is
800/50/160/80/50/9/7/5/3/1/1.
It sounds like this is an intelligent play, depending on the progressive
amounts.
Luke
On Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 8:39 PM, Mickey <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com> wrote:
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Luke Fuller <kungalooosh@...> wrote:
> > A few days ago, the individual progressives were $1,800+, $1,800+, and
> $1,400+. But, I have seen them over $2,000 regularly.
> >
> > The dealt progressive was $9,600+ at the time I was playing a few days
> ago. It hits fairly often. And, I've seen it over $25,000.
> >
> > I don't know what these amounts actually add to the 0.99 payback
> percentage. But, it seems to me that this play is often over 100%.
> >
> > BTW, there are two banks of ten machines (in each bank) with this same
> game. Each bank has its own progressives. So, when one bank of machines
> has lower progressives, I will play on the other bank of machines.
> >
> > Maybe - according to Bob Dancer - there is more to a play being
> 'intelligent' than just having over 100% payback.
>
> With the numbers you give it looks like a pretty good little play. The
> meters look to be fairly strong. I'd want to clock those meters though to
> see just how fast they are. I'd also want to verify that none of the quads
> have been chopped. Sometimes, on a bank like this, the generic quads could
> be chopped from 50 to 1 to 40 to 1. But for now I'm gonna go on the game
> being 9/7 Double Bonus.
>
> I'll leave off the flopped royal for now. Just add the 3 royals together
> then divide be 3. Breakeven on 9/7 single line would be a $1441 royal.
> Breakeven on triple line would be an average royal of $1441. With the
> numbers you give the average royal is $1667. (1800+1800+1400=5000 divided
> by 3 = $1667).
>
> Average royal of $1441 is breakeven but I think I would have to have a bare
> minimum average royal of $1600. I like that number as a bare minimum
> because the strategy per that number puts all the 3-card royals playing over
> all the high pairs (including Aces) and the 3-card flushes. This simplifies
> the strategy.
>
> Average royal of $1600 puts the game at 100.37%. Then there is the flopped
> royal addon. To figure that out we have to do a couple of things. Let's say
> the 3 royals total to $4800 and the flopped royal pays $10,000. We have to
> subtract the $4800 from the $10,000 to get $5200. Then we have to multiply
> the flopped royal frequency (649,740) by the bet($3.75) to get $2,436,525.
> Then we divide $5200 by $2,436,525 to get .21%. Then we add the .21% to
> 100.37% to get 100.58%. Just remember that extra couple of tenths is long
> long term. If I were playing this bank alot I would just consider it a long
> term freeroll.
>
> Theres a lot of variables in factoring in the meters. For starters I would
> only factor in one. Let's say the single line meters are traveling at .5%.
> Can I add the whole .5% to the play? The only way I could do that is if I
> played only when the bank is full of players. I think I would have to shave
> a couple tenths off it for the times I get snapped off when the meters get
> way high and the bank fills up.
>
> The truth is, if I were gonna prey on this bank, I would have to do a lot
> more homework, breakpoints and all that stuff.
>
> A strategy predicated on a $1600 royal puts the royal odds right at 34,000.
>
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