--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> To peter: Outstanding reply. I could not have said it better. Thanks! I owe you one.
>
> ~FK
>
Speaking on behalf of recreationally experienced but not super-technical players, I think there is a failure to recognize some of truth in the7thwarrior's complaint about playing progressives, generally. Sure, 106% EV is 106% EV, but you're gonna hit it or you ain't, and if you ain't, you're gonna pay---dearly---for the attempt. In other words, the volatility (variance) is much, much higher than whatever the game itself would normally be, and it is VERY possible that, on the few occasions the meter gets high enough, and you can find a seat, and you can play for 40 hours without sleeping, eating, or peeing (lest you lose your seat, unless you have help), that overall you just can't get enough plays in to even out that variance. For a recreational player who if lucky could play, say, 10 hours a year in a positive progressive situation, it is easy to see that player play an otherwise 97% game for life without ever hitting that royal. And that's going to be expensive. I've read many times in this forum stories about going 4-5 cycles without hitting a royal, and if you're in that unfortunate 2nd or 3rd standard deviation to the left, you're going to get killed playing these even if you are able to get a lot of hands in. So progressives serve to benefit either the very fortunate (over-royaled) or the very organized who make it their business to pounce on the opportunities when they arise. For those folks, they'd better hope there will be enough "ploppies" to play 97% games with 4100 coin royals, because you won't see people like me pumping them up over the weekend.
