<<I'm analyzing something having to do with a hand in
1-2-3-4-4-9-15-25-200 Deuces Wild. The hand is 973s8W, in which the
"best" play is to keep the deuce, but only by a tiny margin over the
straight draw. My question is the bankroll required, according to the
Kelly Criterion, to draw to the deuce instead of the presumably lower
fluctuation straight draw. I've come up with an answer of 35,624
units, which seems reasonable, but I'm not sure I've done it right.
My method was to take the additional frequency of each ending hand
that drawing to the deuce results in over what drawing to the straight
results in, but that required the total frequency of ending hands be 0
instead of the normal 1 that I'm used to in working with the Kelly
Criterion and that the frequency for the straight be negative, neither
of which I'm sure works correctly. Is there a better way of going
about it?>>
I would try to help you here, Tom, but I am in severe emotional shock after
just seeing the astonishingly violent end of the TV series "Big Love." It
may take me awhile to be able to get back to thinking about VP.
________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
