[vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

 

>Any stat-head out there want to calculate the odds
of that EXACT distribution occurring in one series of 36 throws?

That's a tough question better suited to the Wizard of Odds, but I'll take a shot at it. There are 11^36=3.09127E+37 possible results from tossing the dice 36 times. You can get the odds of the exact sequence (2,3,3,4,4,4...) by multipling all the probabilities, the result is 3.27375E-36. But this sequence can be arranged many ways, I come up with 4.32569E+29 possibilities (36 ways to place the 2, 35 ways to place the 12, 34x33/2 ways to place the two 3's...). Multiply the two and you get 1.41612E-06 which is about the same as the odds of getting a dealt royal (1.53908E-06).

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