Starting with a minimum of $2500 would put the EV at +0.82% minimum,
so expectation after 50 million hands would be a win of $512,000. Thus,
by your own SD number, losing would be a -5 SD event. Sounds to me
like a healthy win supports the claim that the game was fair.
On Tuesday 18 January 2011 02:13:58 am you wrote:
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
> > After about our 50,000,000 hand as a team, we became convinced VP
> > machines were honest and random.
>
> It's always useful to pencil out some numbers. I can only guess at what
you
> were doing, so feel free to correct if you'd like. Let's say your team was
> mostly playing 8/5 jacks quarter progressives with a start level of $2500
> on the royal. Since you had a team and played till it hit, the meter
> movement was like cash back to you and didn't add to your variance.
But
> the variance of the game itself is about 130. After 50 million hands, the
> 2SD range would be plus or minus about $200,000. You would expect to
be
> somewhere in that range some 95% of the time, but it would be unusual
(and
> suspect) to hit the average exactly.
>
>
>
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