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<rosemontwestwood@
> Thank you for your responses to my question! I had to scramble for
> the smelling salts when Anne (girlfriend) saw the 20-40K figure.
> Maybe I shouldn't have asked about the Kelly bankroll. I'm OK with a
> $600-800 session bankroll. As far as coin-in, I would say 180-250K
> yearly would be a fair estimate, although I should be tracking that a
> little bit more carefully. Also, I suppose I could drop down to 3-5
> lines and play dimes, but the best paytable is pseudo-NSU. At a
> nickle, I'd rather watch paint dry.
>
> Does this info help with my question of a set-aside amount? I do have
> a yearly loss limit amount in mind.
>
> Thanks! Eric
Dunbar's got a tool that will give an exact answer, but for that many
hands, using the normal approximation won't be far off:
$250K/$1.25 = 200,000 hands at 5 coin quarters.
1SD = SQRT(Variance x hands) = SQRT(26 x 200,000) = 2,280 bets =
$2,850 at 5 coin quarters.
So:
68% chance of plus or minus $2,850
95% chance of plus or minus %5,700
about a 2.5% chance of losing more than $5,700
The cashback barely covers the negative expectation of NSUD. Assuming
no mistakes in play.
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