Poker Poker Poker!: [vpFREE] Re: The Montana Play

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:
>
> mickeycrimm wrote:
> > It's was a ten-coin nickel play, or a two coin quarter play,
> > whichever you prefer to call it. Hey, don't laugh at me. Wait
until
> > you hear the details.
> >
> > It was a Joker Wild Game (one joker). The payscale was:
> >
> > RF...............800
> > 5K...............250
> > JR...............200
> > SF................50
> > 4K................25
> > FH.................9
> > FL.................5
> > ST.................4
> > 3K.................1*
> > 2P.................1
> >
> > *That's right, the 3K paid even money. But the best is yet to
come.
> >
> > There were 3 bonus hands each having a 1% progressive meter.
These
> > were mostly individual progressives. At some spots 2 or three
> > machines were linked together. At preset the meters looked like
> > this:
> >
> > 5 Aces.................$600
> > 4 Natural Aces.........$150
> > Full House w/3 Aces....$100
> >
> > The only one of these progressive where the joker played was in
the 5
> > Aces hand. The others had to be natural.
> >
> > Montana law is no jackpot over $800, so the 5 Aces meters would
go to
> > $800 and stop. The other meters never got that high so they
could be
> > counted in totality on the play.
> >
> > I'm down to a 25% charge so I've got to run. But first, a pop
quiz,
> > kids!
> >
> > 1. Where would you put the theoretical payback of this game?
> >
> > 2. What kind of a theoretical hourly rate would you put on this
play?
> >
> > 3. If you played this game for 50 hours per week for six months,
> > what is the estimated number of W2G's you would figure to
accumulate?
> >
> > You are not going to be able to run this game comprehensively on
any
> > of the existing programs. I expect your answers to be on my desk
in
> > half an hour.
>
>
> I've been at dinner, Micki, so forgive me for sliding in the back
> door. Limiting myself to 30 minutes, I come up with around a 7%-9%
> play (I'll put the minimum estimate at 6.6% - I'm winging a
guestimate
> of how much on top of that aggressive play for the A's adds. (I can
> show my work upon request ;)
>
> If you assume a 10-coin machine that plays at a moderate speed, say
> 800 hph, hourly coin in is $400 ... making this about a $35/hr play
> with fairly low bankroll requirement.
>
> I see a negligible incidence of $1200+ payouts on the progressive
> meters. (i.e. don't sweat W2-G reporting)
>
> I didn't get a chance to check my work within your time constraint.
> Be easy on me ;)
>
> - H.
>
Harry, you will have to forgive my irreverent post of last evening.
I was suffering delusions of grandeur brought on by a pint and a half
of Custers Last Stout. They were not lying. It is stout!

I started in on this game by running the payscale on Frugal and Win
(87.45%). That became my starting point. And I had the strategy on
Frugal which I verified on Win. Then I had to put the ER on some
hands that you just don't see in regular VP to see where they would
be inserted in the strategy.

Then I did some chart tweaking and analyzing with the main move being
putting 1 Queen above all the RF2's. I had to use the Queen because 1
Ace is not on the strategy chart. The only difference between the
two holds is the Queen makes about 500 more stratights. Because of
the bonus hands 1 Ace goes from not making the strategy chart to a
hand that is worth over 40%. It shoots up well above the RF2's. The
Analyzer now put the game at 86.25%

Then I discover that holding a pair with an Ace kicker comes into
play. The difference between the two hands normally would be holding
the kicker would cost you 20% in ER on the hand. So I calculate how
often I see a pair with an Ace kicker. Every 12 hands. So now I
discount that off the return of the game and my new starting point is
84.6%.

Frugal has a real handy timesaving tool. In the Add Statistics
feature the "appeared" box shows the number of combinations on the
deal that represent that hand. So I take that frequency and multiply
it by the frequency for converting it to the desired hand. I came up
with these numbers for the Aces Full:

Dealt Aces Full.............................9,964
Dealt 3 Aces into Aces Full................11,611
Pair of Aces into Aces Full.................4,663
1 Ace into Aces Full........................6,389
Pair into Aces Full........................17,361
Pair w/Ace Kicker into Aces Full........... 4,529
Aces Up into Aces Full......................3,623

It Averages to 899.4.

Then I take the payoff, 200 bets, discount the normal Full House,
then divide 191 by 899.4 for a 21.28% add-on. I go through the same
process with 4 Aces(5,220) and the 5 Aces (126,325)and get another 6%
add-on.

I add everything up and I've got myself a 111.88% game. Hey, if I'm
off a little I don't care. Plus I've got two meters running at 1%
each. The 5 Aces meter stops at $800 so it doesn't add much.

My Artichoke Vegetable plate has arrived so I must take a short
break.