[vpFREE] Re: VPW

 

<smile> . Really, I am just playing around, having nothing better to do.  I am not involved in anything theoretical, in which I want to get "accurate" results for some high-brow gambling treatise.  I was just running a few simulations to get a "feel" for what happens during 6,667 hands of $0.25 Spin Poker without being at a casino.  Dunbar's short-term ROR calculations say that I seldom should lose $6,000.  Yes, i only ran 15 simulations, and did not lose $6,000 during any one of those.  I know this does not mean that I will NEVER lose $6,000.  But, I guess this sort of confirms that it should be rare.  (And, yes, I know about small number statistics, or at least I read about them.)


To that end, in my first posting on this subject, I was just wondering how well the VPW auto-play option might mimic what really might happen.

(Maybe I should have stopped at Simulation 1....LOL)

..... bl

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Posted by: bornloser1537@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: VPW

 

Small sample size for any Monte Carlo type simulation yields lots of Standard Error in the results because of the high standard deviation of Video Poker and payoff skew that comes from the Royal Flush and bonus features.  When we run a simulation for Blackjack, despite the fact that 21 has mostly even money payoffs it still takes 100 million rounds or more to get the EV and Win% to settle on a number and still the Standard Error is 0.03% to 0.05% and the exact edge of extreme counts is unreliable due to the small number of hands in those buckets.  Now that simulators are faster 400 million rounds is the new "standard". 

"What are thoughts about using the "auto-play" option of VPW for long term simulations (10's to 100's of thousands of lines of play), to faithfully represent "real" casino results?"

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Posted by: vpbp2002@yahoo.com
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