Re: [vpFREE] Re: Odds

 

Can someone explain how covariance impacts 100 play odds?  I remember from my stats class 40 years ago that covariance comes into play when one variable has an effect on another, either positive or negative.  Does the covariance result from the cards you select from the initial deal?

thanks
Rob Reid

On Sunday, February 9, 2020, 07:11:52 PM CST, greeklandjohnny@aol.com [vpFREE] <vpfree@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


 

SB,

Thanks for the correction on the dealt quads number. I was thinking of something else ( maybe RF4 frequency). 

Bottom line is that for a short session of 100 play, the stats don't work the same as they would for 100 times the number of dealt hands in single line. 

It is easier not to see any quads in 20 hands of 100 play than in 2000 hands of single line, due to the large covariance effect of the dealt hand... 

JZ


-----Original Message-----
From: 'Spartan Buckeye' kobj21@aol.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sun, Feb 9, 2020 11:08 am
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: Odds

 
Agree with all of this and for the single line case the Poisson Distribution is very effective in calculating the probability of discrete events.  My personal corollary to this story was once only getting only 1 Quad in approximately 6000 hands of single line Super Aces.  Odds of a session like that are around 1 in 100,000.
 
I'm not sure how you conclude Dealt Quads in 100 play happens about every 2800 hands.  Regardless of the number of lines, the frequency of getting quads on the flop is 1 in 4165.
 
SB
 
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 8, 2020 9:42 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Odds
 
 
If you take it just as "what are the odds of only having 2 quads in 12000 hands" the answer is about one in 5 billion, depending on the game. But that would be for single line. What Dunbar is getting at is that 100 play is highly dependent on the dealt hand for its results. 
 
If you play 12,000 hands of single line, the chance of not being dealt trips is 0. But in 100 play, since you only will be dealt 120 hands, the chances of not seeing trips dealt is only 1 in 12. That's what he means by his 'all my eggs in one basket'.  
 
Multiline distorts the normal statistics used to describe rare events. Dealt quads in 100 play happen about every 2800 hands. In single line, the odds of you being dealt trips 100 times in a row are 0.  

-----Original Message-----
From: Richard Gordon theolflash@gmail.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sat, Feb 8, 2020 9:32 pm
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Odds
 
Dunbar , I'm not asking about dealt trips or quads. I asking about 2 quads in 12000 hands
 
On Sat, Feb 8, 2020 at 5:39 PM 'H. Dunbar .' h_dunbar@hotmail.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 
It's not an easy question to give an exact answer to, at least not for me.  While I'm sure the odds are small, they are not as small as one might think.   When you play 100-line, there's an "all my eggs in one basket" effect.
 
With single line, your expected number of dealt trips for that amount of play is 253.  But with just 120 dealt hands to work with, you have a significant chance (8%) of never being dealt trips.   
 
Your chance of being dealt quads in 120 hands is less than 3%.  Compare that to the 94% chance of dealt quads if the same amount of play was done with single-line in the same denomination.
 
--Dunbar
 
 
 
 
 
h_dunbar@hotmail.com

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