What does Bayes' Theorem say the estimate is after 1 pick? I don't see how the changing estimate of the probability of the truth of the original theory that the $1, the $5, and the $1000 were equally likely can be quantified.On Fri, Dec 23, 2016 at 3:01 PM, nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:An example: There's a kiosk promotion, you might play a video poker machine depending on the EV of the kiosk promotion. In the promotion, you have a choice of three boxes, and it says the value behind each box is either $1, $5, or $1000, and after you make your choice, the other boxes are revealed so you can verify this. Your initial estimate of EV is: (1+5+1000)/3 = $335.33 . You use your watch's second hand to randomize your pick (every gambler knows how to do this, right?) and after 10 picks you've received $1 every time. What's your estimate of EV now? Still sticking with $335.33? How many picks of $1 will it take before you realize it's a weighted or even fixed promotion? Or will you just play forever on the assumption that your initial guess at EV must be 100% correct? Your luck has to turn eventually, right?
Posted by: Tom Robertson <007kzq@gmail.com>
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