[vpFREE] Re: The Perfect Bet

 

Mickey wrote: "If you google "three basic mistakes that people make at casinos" you will find the article. "

Notice that the third mistake is "gambler's ruin", which is the tendency of most people to increase their bet size when they win (which is correct) but fail to reduce their bet size when they lose. Bet size needs to be in proportion to current bankroll, the Kelly fraction would seem the obvious place to start, but gamblers are free to see if they can do better than J.L Kelly.

As a very rough rule of thumb, don't bet more than your current bankroll times your edge divided by the variance. It should be obvious that you can always bet less.

Bob Dancer expressed another rough rule of thumb in his last article: "If one royal flush is a life-changing experience, you're playing for stakes that are much too high for you."

John Larry Kelly, Jr. - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr

John Larry Kelly, Jr. - Wikipedia, the free encycl... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr John Larry Kelly, Jr. (1923–1965), was a scientist who worked at Bell Labs. He is best known for formulating the Kelly criterion, a formula to determine wha...



View on en.wikiped... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr
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