I think your explanation was right on target, and I agree that the machine makers know every nuance of the behavioral phenomenon you outlined.
The proliferation of penny slots in casinos, I believe, gives great credence to what you wrote. While I don't play them, I try to observe what's going on around me. First of all, many of the machines are "themed" around some pop culture person or show. The Sopranos, Wizard of OZ, Michael Jackson (can Caitlin be far behind?) This lends an air of comfort to initiate play. Second, while these are nominally 'penny' machines, a maximum of $3 or$5 is not unusual, and the higher amounts lead to more bells & whistles on the screen, as well as the opportunity to hit the larger jackpots. Finally, there seem to be relatively frequent 'wins' that return only a portion of the initial wager, thus prolonging the player's stay at the machine, while ensuring a steady, grind-it-out profit for the casino.
I'd venture to say that the actual overall payout percentage would be very difficult to determine by the casual, or even the highly addicted player, but I don't see anything that would contradict your explanation in any way. In fact, although it is HIGHLY anecdotal, a couple of slot players have said that the Wizard of OZ slots used to pay off much better than they have more recently. They say that you used to get the flying monkeys relatively frequently, but now you rarely see them. Of course, this might just be comparable to the anecdotal reports we hear all the time about how "I'm lucky if I pull the fifth card to a flush once every 20 tries" or "I get 4 to a Royal forty times a session, but I haven't hit one in 37 years"
Certainly the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you; if you don't bet, you can't win. -Lazarus Long
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein
From: "Barry Glazer b.glazer@att.net [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: "vpFREE@yahoogroups.com" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, August 26, 2015 9:18 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Frequency / amount of payout -- was "stingier slots"
Original Post:
The design of a slot machine is tricky. If it paid out too much, the house would go broke. If it paid out to little, clients would learn to avoid it. Somewhere between those extremes is an optimal point (from the POV of the house). The trick is to find that point.
There is a related issue: For a given payback percentage, should the machine be configured to make lots of small payouts, or fewer but larger payouts?
I would suppose slot machine designers pay a lot of attention to all this. But maybe not.
Response:
As I psych major in college, I learned some of the principles of conditioned behavior -- which undoubtedly have application in human behavior at the slots... I'm pretty sure my explanation below is a correct recollection of the long-ago learned information from way back then.
I can't imagine that machine designers and casinos are unaware of this science, or at least understand the underlying patterns even if they don't know the actual science. It is pretty much a fundamental principle that is being applied to slots to "condition" people to play them, and to do so with a long-term negative expectation.
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that a game that awards something on the screen that is very entertaining, even when no money is paid, might also be considered as a "good machine" to play. The rewards don't have to be only monetary.
Of course, knowledgeable players such as those on this list probably ignore all this and play rationally, but most players are not that knowledgeable.
--BG===================
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Posted by: GURU PERF <guruperf@att.net>
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