<ehpee@...> wrote :
The really big trick is finding a game that's got a 2% E.V.
------------
Tell me about it ...
Three years ago I found a dream $1 single-line bank, modest variance, 2%+ play that was entirely off the "pro" radar. (While the bank was listed in vpFREE, it seemed that the promotional value of the play was undervalued by most.)
The bank was hit pretty hard, but aside from myself, active play was largely restricted to a select set of reasonably knowledgeable retirees (many of whom preferred the less optimal game option of DDB).
I went out of my way to curtail play, not wanting to risk outplaying my welcome. (I restricted play to one monthly 3-day visit, averaging 10 visits a year ... of the 3 years I played, my worst annual outcome was a $6k profit during a royal-less year against something like 3 cycles of play that year.)
The casino finally pulled the plug on the play this year. Remaining gaming options may offer a breakeven opportunity, at best. Oddly, I now find myself no-mailed and denied a room (even at casino rate!)
- H.
From: mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, July 04, 2015 3:13 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
bobbartop wrote: "This is ridiculous. If you put in 10 million hands with a 2% EV on a game with 28 variance the only way you ain't gonna win is if you continuously get robbed in the parking lot. Guaranteed!"
2% EV with 28 variance has a pretty nice N0 of 28/.02/.02 = 70,000 hands, so 10 million hands would be almost 143 N0 cycles. There's always a little tail of black swans, but once you get beyond 25N0 it's almost a sure thing, at least your odds of losing are probably less than the odds of getting cheated or robbed in the parking lot or your hotel room.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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