[vpFREE] Bob Dancer: Equity Question for You

 

{I post to the site via email and the results are often munged ... I'm going to try using a bit of html in this missive to make things better ... it may or may not work ... apologies if it doesn't ... I don't know what else I can do.}<br><br>Hi Bob,<br>Here's the theoretical deal.  A new Las Vegas casino, "Exquisite Excess" (with suspicious ties to the old Vegas World) has an interesting "video poker" machine, "Big Fricken Diamonds." The way the machine works is you're dealt five cards and you get no draws.  BFD has exactly one paying hand TdJdQdKdAd, an ascending royal flush in diamonds.  No other hands, of any type, pay.  Again, there is no draw -- so really, in the way you interact with it, it's more of a slot machine than a video poker machine.  You either win with a royal flush, L to R in diamonds, or you lose.  It costs $1 to play and the one, and only, prize for hitting the BFDs is a whopping $625,000,000.<br><br><b>Fine points:</b><br>You can load as many credits as you'd like in the machine.<br>From the moment you hit the "draw/play" button it takes three seconds to deal/display, before you can engage the "draw/play" button again.<br>There is only one BFD machine in the world.<br>BFD is too far removed from other machines to be able to play anything else at the same time.<br>It's not possible to set the machine to be playing automatically.<br><br>You may already know this number off the top of your head, but in case you don't, I'll save you the work.  The odds of being dealt BFDs are <br>(1/52)(1/51)(1/50)(1/49)(1/48) <br>or 1 in 311,875,200. <br>Which is to say the expectation on BFD is slightly better than 2 (or, using different wording, better than 200% payback in the long run). <br><br>My question to you, Bob, is this: would you play it?  Why or why not?<br><br>Although I'm most interested in hearing Bob Dancer's answer to this question, any and all are welcome to chime in in any way, shape or form.<br><br>Thanks everyone, <br>m.

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Posted by: m h <kickboyface@yahoo.com>
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