[vpFREE] Re: S.C.O.R.E for video poker

 

Personally, you can get more or less the same benefits as S.C.O.R.E. with the following system for rating any gamble/investment:

1. Do you think you have an edge? You need an edge if you expect to win in the long term.

2. Do you think you have the bankroll? I'd recommend a bankroll always greater than the betsize times the variance divided by the edge, which is the approximate Kelly optimal. If you want you can solve for the exact Kelly optimal using a spreadsheet, for FPDW it is 2925 times the betsize. The advantage of using the estimate (variance/edge) is that it can be calculated on the fly in your head as long as you think you know the variance and edge.

3. Do you think you have the time? You need to be able to play over Nzero (variance/edge/edge) hands in the current tax year. Nzero is the point where the edge equals one standard deviation. Less than Nzero is clearly still short term.

If you can answer a firm yes to all of these questions, you have a play. If you have a choice of several plays, you need to rank them somehow, the typical way to rank plays would be by dollars/hour of ev. Another way to rank would be by the Sharpe Ratio which is ev/sd or ev/sqrt(variance).

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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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