Dunbar wrote: "In fact, even playing 5000 hands of FPDW at every casino in Las Vegas is unlikely to get you to its Nzero of 445,000 hands. You'd have to play at 90 casinos."
I'm just nitpicking but I thought there was a little over 100 casinos in Las Vegas. Of course few of them actually have FPDW, and probably at least half of them are just grind joints, but that's a seperate issue.
Dunbar wrote: "But there's no question in my mind that if you had this 5000-hand opportunity on Dec 31, and you were $30K ahead for the year, and your bankroll is at least the Kelly bankroll of $147,000 (for $10 FPDW), then going for that $1900 of EV is the correct decision."
I agree, you should put a stop loss limit in of $30K, so you don't take your net tax year results below zero.
Dunbar wrote: "Similarly, if it's the beginning of the year, and you have solid expectation of being able to play enough low Nzero games during the year to put yourself well in the clear of a $30K loss (and you have the Kelly bankroll), then it's correct to go for the 5000-hand FPDW play. "
This one is slightly trickier since you don't actually have the $30K tax buffer yet. You might be digging yourself a hole here. You should put some probability number on the chances of clearing at least $30K for the rest of the year and go from there. What if this is the year the casinos all tighten up? What if you suffer some medical emergency and can't commit enough time to gambling this year? What if some hacker hacks into your bank account and steals your gambling bankroll, and so on. Go through the "what-ifs?" You should also consider the psychological consequences, this could be a highly disappointing and demoralizing gambling year if you have to hustle your butt off just to avoid a tax loss.
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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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