Holding the four clubs: EV = 1.2766
Holding 3 to the royal: EV = 1.2868
You would have to play an awful lot of hands for that small difference to matter.
When the EV is this close, relative volatility is more important than EV. I don't know how Winpoker computes, but it seems obvious that drawing one card to a flush is way less volatile than going for the royal. It's a matter of bankroll survival.
Ignoring small possible contributions by a high pair:
Probabilities:
One card flush draw: 9/47
Two card royal draw: (2/47)(1/46)
Ratio: 207:1 in favor of the one card draw to a flush.
- - Norma
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Posted by: normagirl9@yahoo.com
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