[vpFREE] Re: Progressive strategy change and variance

 

This thread has been really eye opening and min-cost-royal stuff is new to me, so let me ask a few questions about it and about Dan's software (or other software packages that will calculate it).

I've read up here: vpFREE FAQ Strategies

 


So one thing written there is that the min-cost-royal strategy is very close to min-risk, which lowers the risk of ruin.  This is counter-intuitive to me, though.  With the MCR strategy you are doing things like throwing away high pairs to take 3 to a royal -- this by itself seems to me that it would add more variance.  Additionally more of the % return is left to the royal that occurs more frequently.  Those in conjunction with the slightly lower EV seems to me like it would be more risky and it would lead to you busting faster.  What's the problem in my logic or my understanding of what the MCR strategy is?

Let me also see if I'm right about when MCR strategy should be used.  Assuming a sufficient bankroll, we'd usually desire to just play standard max-EV strategy, but MCR (or best-shot-royal) would be a better choice in the situation where we are playing a progressive for a finite amount of time.

Now let me address the last couple of posts by you nightoftheiguana2000.  Your first post with the 9/6 MCR strategy is slightly different from the FAQ, though you both have the 976 number.  Is yours more accurate or just a simpler version to remember (e.g. you put ATs above all 1H, but the FAQ strategy has ATs only above A)?  In your second post you talk about rakeback.  I'm familiar with this term from poker playing days, but I assume in the VP context you mean slot club benefits.  I don't really understand what the 2.1% has to do with changing the strategy.  Can you explain this in more detail?

Lastly, regarding software, Dan said his would calculate MCR strategies for any paytable.  Can it, or any other software do the following:

Calculate MCR and best-shot-royal strategies
Calculate these strategies given the "rakeback" that iguana was talking about above.
Work for other games like BP/JW/DW44/etc. (nothing crazy like Ultimate X)
Provide variance and bankroll analysis for these strategies

Thanks in advance!

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Posted by: pede1976@badbeatscrew.com
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