nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com wrote:
>Don't get stuck if the Kelly bet is $5.522589, yes you can bet $5 and no you can't bet $6 or $10. It's that simple.
I think you're going too far here. It might depend on the situation,
since it's so close, but I believe there's more bankroll growth with a
$6 bet than $5.
But my main comment on a stress on the Kelly Criterion is skepticism
that stressing it is necessary. It's kind of like the situation with
Christians saying one has to accept Christ as their Lord and Savior or
spend eternity in hell, even if one was born into a country in which
no one is going to hear the name Christ. I happen to believe that
such people are not doomed to hell and will basically do all right,
even assuming that Christianity would have been a step in the right
direction, which I don't want to express an opinion about. What do
people without much understanding of the Kelly Criterion do? I doubt
if overbetting is generally much of a problem. Most gamblers can be
classified into the vast majority of losers, to whom Kelly would only
tell them to stop gambling, and professionals who, no matter how
unsophisticated their understanding of the Kelly Criterion is,
generally understand that they shouldn't bet more than a certain
amount and generally don't. I don't believe I've ever had much of a
sophisticated understanding of it, but I think I've done pretty well
in not overbetting my bankroll. And I'm skeptical that chronic
overbettors will be "cured" by understanding the Kelly Criterion.
Maybe they crave excitement so much that they wouldn't be affected by
such a cerebral approach. To make a case that the Kelly Criterion
needs to be propagated more, you'd have to show examples of people
whose failure had turned to success, not due to more positive EV, but
strictly due to not overbetting any more, with % EV held constant. It
wold have to be a professional who knows enough to have positive EV
but who is so blind to the danger of overbetting that s/he'll still
lose. I think that's rare. I don't think "Fortune's Formula" made
that case.
| Reply via web post | Reply to sender | Reply to group | Start a New Topic | Messages in this topic (2) |
