5f. Re: Positive ev at the big two
"E.g. I played 50000 coin-in on a 98.5% machine at Harrahs, I would expect to loose $750 but I got diamond status, which gives me..."
I am a little confused by this report, assuming "50000 coin-in" is on a dollar machine, therefore translating to $50,000 of coin-in (which, incidentally, translates to 10 hours at 1000 hands per hour on a single-line dollar machine).
Diamond status currently requires 15000 points, which can most efficiently (cost-wise) be earned with two 2500 point days, each earning 5000 bonus points (or a single 5000 point day, earning 10,000 bonus points). Points are earned at one point per $25 coin-in. Therefore the lowest cost for Diamond status is 5,000 earned points at $25 each, or $125,000 coin-in. Playing on multiplier days earns more reward credits, but does not earn more tier credits (used to determine Diamond status) in any promotion I've ever seen.
A friend of mine recently earned Diamond in about 4-6 hours, playing $1 10-play, presumably with about 500 "deals" per hour (which is 5000 hands per hour, each hand $50 coin-in).
I realize you said you sometimes play $2 and $5 denominations, but the latter would have to be in the mix to make Diamond with 50,000 "coin" in, if "coin" is translated as the denomination.
Having laid out that "issue", $125,000 coin-in on a 98.5% machine will "cost" $125,000 x .0015, = $1875. That is the correct figure to balance against your estimated $750 in comps. If you earned Diamond on a 99.5% machine (my "round-off" of Jacks or Better, at 99.54% with perfectly correct play), the "cost" would have been $625, which is closer to break-even or come-out-ahead vs the $750 in comps. Playing on multiplier days, depending on the multiplier, can increase the value of the comps earned.
Incidentally, all comps should probably be valued at their worth to you, e.g., a $100 comp'ed dinner bill may be more properly valued at $60, if that's what you would expect to pay at a similar restaurant for similar food outside of a casino. My personal impression is that (almost all) high-end casino restaurants are priced a little higher than a similar non-casino restaurant, and I think it's to give the impression of a more valuable "comp" than is actually received. I also believe I've heard somewhere that more and more of casino revenue is from non-gaming sources, and this would include restaurant revenue. Others may disagree with my valuation of comp'ed dinners, and some might even think a $100 comp'ed dinner has more than $100 in value.
There are, of course, machines that return more than 99.5% -- but to my knowledge, they are no longer available at any Harrahs / CET properties, for all practical purposes, and to my knowledge, not even close for those properties in Las Vegas. I know only of a small handful of machines with 9/6 Jacks or Better in Indiana, as an exception.
I would welcome some of the more astute mathematicians to confirm or correct my arithmetic (I once was good at math, now I'm only good at simple arithmetic).
--BG
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