Thanks for the correction, I need to pay more attention to what I'm reading. That is pretty amazing.
---In vpfree@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote:
Odds in the original post were for a DEALT sequential royal flush, ordered A-T
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <alan3262@...> wrote:Where do you get odds of 1 in 77,968,800 for a sequential royal flush? Not knowing exactly what game you were playing, let's say the probability of a royal flush is 1 in 40,000. The probability that given a royal flush, it is sequential, is 1 in 60 (assuming that either A/K/Q/J/10 or 10/J/Q/K/A counts). Multiply the 2 numbers, and you get 1 in 2.4 million.
The 1/60 value assumes that you are not doing anything differently to get a sequential royal flush compared to trying to get any royal flush. I'm not clear if the jackpot required a sequential royal flush, or if it was for any royal flush. If it was only for a sequential, there would probably be some strategy adjustments if you had 2 or more royal flush cards in the right positions, so that might increase the chances slightly that a royal flush will be sequential.
If the progressive is for any royal flush, with a jackpot that high (I'm assuming your nickel machine required only 5 nickels for the jackpot of $545.15, which is over 2.7x the normal payout), you would probably be making major adjustments to your strategy in order to maximize EV, and these adjustments would increase the probability of a royal flush. For example, you would most likely always keep a high pair over 3 to a royal flush. In that case, your chances of getting a royal flush (including sequential royal flushes) would improve somewhat.
---In vpfree@yahoogroups.com, <neocacher@...> wrote:Too bad it was only in nickels! However it was a Progressive with 3x points .5% slot club. The EV was 100.3% today, that is why I was playing it. Dealt AKQJ10 hearts.This is the one of the only 100+% opportunities in Deadwood, SD. Odds are 77,968,800 to one. But you already knew that!Truly a once in a lifetime event for me, I am sure.
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