There is a lot of unnecessary speculation on a topic for which we could do some straight forward math to figure it out. There are two obvious ways to proceed. One is simulate a bunch of samples of millions of hands and look at the distribution. A quicker approximation can be calculated using the central limit theorem.
For those that aren't aware, the distribution of any average is approximately normally distributed in large samples. This allows us to get an estimate of the standard deviation of an extremely large number of hands, and approximate the whole distribution with a normal. We need a large number to make the Clt approximation close to accurate.
Variance grows linearly with hands and standard deviation grows with the square root of hands for independent trials. If we take fpdw, the variance of one hand is 25.84 bets, the sd is 5.0833. If we take 1 million hands, the distribution starts looking normal with an sd of sqrt(1000000)*5.0833=5083.3. A 95% confidence interval is plus or minus 1.96 times the sd or plus or minus 9963.28. Now the edge on 1000000 hands in 7620 units so a 95% confidence interval includes plenty of negative numbers. In fact, the range of the confidence interval is more than twice as large as the edge. A million hands is approximately 6 months of full time play.
You can do this for any game and it takes a bit of time to learn but not that long to use once you figure it out. If anyone has a critique of this method or the math, let me know.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@...> wrote:
>
> Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 26 MAR 2013
>
> "The Secret to Success"
>
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0326.cfm
>
>
> *************************************************
> This link is posted for informational purposes
> and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
> of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
> discussion of the article must be done in
> accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
> *************************************************
>
| Reply via web post | Reply to sender | Reply to group | Start a New Topic | Messages in this topic (6) |
