Ah, the magic word "assume" = Ass out of U amd Me
I would say if they are at over 95% it may be interesting. Search in this group "Quick Strike" thread of a few months ago.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." <broncosaurus@...> wrote:
>
> Ah, I see, thanks.
>
> Do you have any insight on trying to figure the "non-must pay machines"? I
> see far more of these around. They will have say 5 progressives, starting
> with small frequent jackpots of say $10 at reset and continuing on
> up to $1000 or whatever. Or, they may only have two. Might I assume in
> the latter case if both the meters are say 70% over reset that's
> interesting?
>
> On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 3:23 PM, vpplayer88 <vpplayer88@...> wrote:
>
> > **
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > One of the key unknowns in doing the math for these machines is what the
> > house edge is. We have data on the overall house edge on all penny machines
> > for many casinos. It's usually 10 or 11 percent or something in that range.
> > But that's not the relevant variable for doing math on the machine. That is
> > the total return for machines which includes the return that comes from
> > players winning jackpots. You have to adjust the house edge upward when
> > doing the math for hit points on jackpots because you are interested in the
> > return of the base game, if the same line pays were awarded but there was
> > no jackpot. For a major with a 2% meter rise resets at 250 must hit by 500,
> > the adjustment is about 1%.
> >
> > I also believe the returns on the machines are probably a bit lower than
> > penny slots as a whole because there are some penny slots where you have to
> > play max to earn a higher return, and that should skew the results for
> > machines where playing max doesn't yield a higher return.
> >
> > My estimate for a major minor 25-50 and 250-500 at my local casino with 2%
> > meters on each is about 15% house edge ex jackpot.
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
> > >
> > > The comment about adjusting for the jackpot's part of the total return.
> > > Thanks.
> > >
> > > On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 3:38 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
> > >
> > > > **
> >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The formatting of your question didn't work to well on my browser so
> > I'm
> > > > not sure what you are asking about. Can you clarify?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > **
> > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for
> > these
> > > > > > calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few
> > seconds
> > > > in
> > > > > > your head.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of
> > playing
> > > > the
> > > > > > machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
> > > > > > estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise.
> > If
> > > > > > expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of
> > moving
> > > > the
> > > > > > meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and
> > the ex
> > > > > > jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the
> > meter a
> > > > > > penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the
> > > > number
> > > > > > of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then
> > > > it's
> > > > > > 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Could you elaborate a little more on this:
> > > > >
> > > > > > play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the
> > jackpots
> > > > > > take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more
> > > > difficult
> > > > > > to do on the spot.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just
> > it's
> > > > > > mid point.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how
> > > > changes
> > > > > > in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a
> > mystery
> > > > > > progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules
> > > > screen to
> > > > > > get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in
> > > > Australia
> > > > > > get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give
> > myself a
> > > > > > starting number.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of
> > error
> > > > of
> > > > > > plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding
> > the
> > > > > > lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing
> > by 2.
> > > > > > Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
> > > > > > $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 =
> > 3%.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback.
> > Two-thirds
> > > > of it
> > > > > > is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You
> > can't
> > > > say
> > > > > > you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out
> > > > when you
> > > > > > hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major
> > meter.
> > > > > > I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average
> > payoff for
> > > > > > betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the
> > upper
> > > > > > parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49.
> > > > It's a
> > > > > > 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > > > > > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > > > > > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > > > > > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > > > > > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
> > > > > > Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will
> > have
> > > > many
> > > > > > losing plays.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Next post....
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
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