[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 12 FEB 2013

 



I think there are plenty of examples of inductive logic being very useful for gambling. There are many things you can't know a priori. For example, the number of entries in a drawing is very important for estimating your equity. There is no way to do this except with inductive logic. Another example is estimating your edge in tournaments of skill like poker, blackjack or craps. You can't estimate these without inductive logic because the true strategies of your opponents are unknown given that you only observe a small subset of their potential actions.

Anyway, the point is that you should understand which kind of logic is appropriate for each situation. Video poker is a full information game so you should use deductive logic if you played perfectly, but you need to use inductive logic to estimate your error frequency and adjust your ev accordingly.

If you play must hit by slots, the true return is not known and play data is relevant for figuring out the quality of a play. The key here is understanding something about how much events should move your prior about machine returns.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator wrote:
>
> Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 12 FEB 2013
>
> "Induction versus Deduction"
>
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0212.cfm
>
>
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