The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds in your head.
The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing the machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving the meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the number of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then it's 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more difficult to do on the spot.
Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's mid point.
This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how changes in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
>
> Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules screen to get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in Australia get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a starting number.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> >
> > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> >
> > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error of plus 4% or minus 3%).
> >
> > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2. Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> >
> > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> >
> > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> >
> > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> >
> > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds of it is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't say you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out when you hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter. I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> >
> > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> >
> > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49. It's a 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> >
> > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> >
> > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> >
> > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> >
> > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays. Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have many losing plays.
> >
> > Next post....
> >
>
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