Re: [vpFREE] Re: ADVANTAGE SLOTS

On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 <vpplayer88@yahoo.com> wrote:

> **
>
>
>
>
> The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these
> calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds in
> your head.
>
> The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing the
> machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
> estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If
> expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
>
> How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving the
> meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex
> jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a
> penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
>
> Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the number
> of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then it's
> 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a
>

Could you elaborate a little more on this:

> play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots
> take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more difficult
> to do on the spot.
>
>


> Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's
> mid point.
>
> This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how changes
> in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> >
> > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
> progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules screen to
> get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in Australia
> get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
> starting number.
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > >
> > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > >
> > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error of
> plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > >
> > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the
> lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2.
> Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > >
> > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
> $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > >
> > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> > >
> > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > >
> > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds of it
> is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't say
> you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out when you
> hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
> I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > >
> > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
> betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
> parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > >
> > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49. It's a
> 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > >
> > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > >
> > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > >
> > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > >
> > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
> Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have many
> losing plays.
> > >
> > > Next post....
> > >
> >
>
>
>


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/

<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional

<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/join
(Yahoo! ID required)

<*> To change settings via email:
vpFREE-digest@yahoogroups.com
vpFREE-fullfeatured@yahoogroups.com

<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
vpFREE-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/