Play the FPDW, for at least 406,250 hands per year. Set a bankroll stop loss limit, before you start play, and stick to it. The approximate mathematical Kelly stop loss limit would be about $4000. If your bankroll gets ground down to this limit, whatever you're doing is not working and you need to stop and do something else. If you can't stick to your predetermined stop loss limit and stop, you likely have a gambling addiction and should seek professional help.
Approximate Kelly is variance/edge bets, so for your FPDW it's 26/.008=3250 and for your NSU it's 26/.004=6500. Take your $15,000 bankroll and divide by 2 then divide by the Kelly number, so that's $2.30 for FPDW and $1.15 for NSU. The N0 number is 26/.008/.008=406,250 hands. You should plan on playing at least this number of hands per year, if you can't, luck will be dominant over skill in your results and keep in mind that you can't carry forward losses from a losing year, which would take a bite out of your edge. For example, say you win $1000 in your first year but lose $1000 in your second year, seems like that should be a net breakeven result but as far as Uncle Sam is concerned, you owe taxes on the $1000 gain year and you don't get a credit for the $1000 loss year. Yes this is unfair taxation but don't expect any change anytime soon.
The NSU earn rate is greater at more than $2.50 per hand, but you need a bankroll on the order of 6500 x 2 x $2.50 = $32,500 and the N0 jumps up to 26/.004/.004= 1.6 million hands. If you happen to have the bankroll and can play at least that many hands per year, that is the better dollar/hour play.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Skip" <codonn2478@...> wrote:
>
> I need help determining which game I should play, for what denomination and for how long a session should be.
>
> Background:
> 1. My total bankroll is %15000.00
> 2. My games and minimum returns including cash back and free play which I play now are:
> FPDW @ 100.8 (only available in $.25 denomination)
> NSU Dueces @ 100.4 (available in all denominations but usually at the .25 Denomination and some in multiple hand machines).
> JOB @ 100.2 (available in all denominations and again some in multiple game machines).
> BP @ 100.2 (available in all denominations).
> 3. My average speed of play on single line machines is 700/hr.
> 4. My play as perfect as humanly possible as I practice for at least an hour on VP For Winners before going to the casino.
>
> I live in LV 6 months out of the year (snowbird) and am willing to play at any casino in the area to keep, increase and my maximize my bankroll.
>
