Is bankroll a concern? The Kelly bankroll can be approximated by variance/edge bets, so under the Kelly system, a reduction in edge could be justified if there was a greater reduction in the corresponding variance. Likewise an increase in edge is possibly not justified if there is a greater increase in variance (it would depend on what your bankroll was). BTW, FWIW, for 9/7/5 double bonus plus 1% you're looking at an approximate Kelly bankroll of 28.6/.001=28,600 bets = $143,000 on five coin dollars. And N0 is 28.6/.001/.001= 28.6 million hands! All assuming near computer perfect play!
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kimbaed1@..." <kimbaed1@...> wrote:
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> Thanks Bob,
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> I already have your Winner's Guide for DB. I'm primarily a Blackjack player, but I enjoy mixing in some vp play if I'm there on promo days.
> I'll learn the penalty cards.
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> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@> wrote:
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> > Kimbaed1 wrote: longtime lurker here. I appreciate all the useful advice that I've read from the many excellent contributors. The best games at my home casino are $1 9/7DB, 98.91%DW, or 9/5JOB. With bounceback free-play and promos,
> > I calculated another 1% - 1 1/2% depending on the promo. I've been playing 9/7DB but the variance has sometimes been tough to swallow. I've got the strategy down for all 3 games except for penalty cards. Any recommendations on game selection? Accepting your info at face value --- stay away from 9-5 Jacks. It's low variance, but it requires 1.55% in extras just to break even. And your casino doesn't offer that much. 15-9-4-4-3 DW has a lower variance than 9-7 DB --- but at a price of 0.2%. That's a high price --- about $6 - $10 per hour, depending on how fast you play. There will be days at DW that you're not going to like the variance either. Any day you don't hit the royal or at least one set of deuces, you're going to be booking a loser at that game as weil. For me, dollars per hour is king --- so I'd stay with DB AND learn the penalty cards (if that's within your capabilities). Sure there will be bad days --- but there will be more good days with this game than either of the other two. Bob
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