> On Apr 18, 2012, at 8:59 AM, matt20482002 wrote:
>> OK, you converted 23 of 200 flushes.
>>
Shorter version of my previous message.
It would be cool to know, if I played 5,000 or 10,000 flush draws, how
likely I am to have a bad streak where only 23/200 flushes connect.
Or...What is the number of flush draws I need to play (e.g. 1,000,
10,000), before I have 50% chance of seeing a bad streak of 23/200 or
worse.
Mitchell
Here's a link I found:
Recently I've come across a task to calculate the probability that a
run of at least K successes occurs in a series of N (K≤N) Bernoulli
trials (weighted coin flips), i.e. "what's the probability that in
50 coin tosses one has a streak of 20 heads?"
http://www.askamathematician.com/2010/07/q-whats-the-chance-of-getting-a-run-of-k-successes-in-n-bernoulli-trials-why-use-approximations-when-the-exact-answer-is-known/
It's messy.
Does any know any links to "bad streaks of 23/200" as opposed to "runs
of 23"?
