Miss Craps concluded: Just goes to show you that
maybe it doesn't matter if you had a lot of play
or not...maybe having high number of entries makes it a bit more likely you
will win something, but not necessarily a great prize with 10 names called.
What she says is true, but misleading.
The chances of being called first is correlated with how
many entries you have. But not perfectly correlated. If she has 4000 tickets at
the Palms for 100 drawings, she'll probably get called 70 times --- often
first. That's a lot of tickets for their drawings. Someone who has 100 tickets
for the same 100 drawings might be called once or twice.
The thing is that there might be 200 players each
drawing night with 100 tickets or less. One of them sometimes wins --- but 199
of them don't! That person who won tells everybody that it only takes a few
tickets. The other 199 tell of that one time in 2009 when they won as well,
forgetting to mention that they have showed up again and again and again since
then with no drawing luck.
Earning 4000 tickets for a Palms drawing takes $400,000
in coin-in --- if you're playing on a video poker machine that includes 1¢ or
5¢
games. Playing 9/6 DDB perfectly implies an expected loss of $4,008 --- a lot
more if you don't play perfectly. At the Palms this offset by $1,000 in free
play (or $2,000 if you used a 2x point coupon which was available once during a
3-week period if you got the coupon book in the mail). This will qualify you
for a pretty good mailer for a month or two. To my mind the fact that she broke
even (presumably meaning she came out $1000 or $2000 ahead including free play)
is largely irrelevant. I believe you should judge your decisions based on EV.
NOT on actual results.
If you were guaranteed to win the IMAC and the $3,000 in
cash that would go with it, it might be a good investment (if you can afford
the swings of $400,000 of DDB. This is likely not a concern for Miss Craps, but
for many players it would be.) But as Miss Craps concluded, you are NOT
guaranteed to win first prize --- or any prize at all.
Sometimes I have played this much during a similar
promotion, although I play 8/5 Bonus which gives the casino $700 less of EV
compared to 9/6 DDB. (The best game EV-wise that counts for promos at the Palms
is 25¢
Ten Play 9/6 JoB. You can get about $7000 coin-in per hour on these machines.
It takes 50+ hours in less than a week to earn 4000 tickets. Yes it's possible if you have nothing else to do that week,
but . . . ) It is inconceivable to me that I would voluntarily give up an extra
$700 in EV to play for a drawing. I am grateful for Miss Craps and others who
are willing to do this.
Bob
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