The only thing I would say for sure is the (correct) calculated return for 9/6 JB is based on solid mathematics and is not subject to any luck or any external factors. It is simply the overall return you get if you played every possible hand correctly (to maximize overall EV).
The overall return for 9/6 JB for perfect play is 99.5439+ (I have to look up the precise figure)
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote:
>
> I understand the Admin's view point, but I think this is a very valid discussion for VP Free and would have widespread interest the VP Free community as a whole. I think the number of people who have never doubted the fairness of machines at some point in their career is a very small number. I consider myself a pretty good gambler, vp player and am pretty confident with the math behind the games but when I was playing vbj and busted my 12 vs 2 what seemed like 20 times in a row, I started to wonder about the 'fairness' of the game. Of course, when I sat down and actually counted the times I got 12 vs 2 and the number of times I busted, it was right in the center of the expected value distribution.
>
> But, the same question applies to this very simple case. My hypothesis was that my holding of 12 vs dealer 2 busted more than the expected value. Depending on the composition of the 12, my probability of busting is either 16/49 or 15/49( single deck game, reshuffle after every hand). How many samples do I need, and what result will either confirm or refute my hypothesis?
>
> Just because vpfree adheres to the belief that VP machines are fair doesn't mean I shouldn't know how that is calculated and what goes behind the statement. Just accepting a statement as fact doesn't teach you anything.
>
> VPfree also accepts the premise that 9/6 JOB is a 99.54% return ( to 2 decimal places) but a discussion of how you get to that number would certainly be valid.
>
> If I decide to play a little recreational roulette ( like the $0.25 game at the Westin 5-8 M - Th) and I bet on 17 and 60 spins go by without a 17, what does that tell me? How about 100 spins? 200 spins?
> I think this is an excellent topic for VP Free. Just because some people will get all wound up on the topic doesn't mean it shouldn't be discussed.
>
> One vote to open this topic up to discussion.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@> wrote:
> >
> > From the vpFREE FAQ:
> >
> > "vpFREE believes that video poker games which are regulated
> > by respected gaming commissions are random and fair, and
> > that the ER of such games is a mathematical function of
> > their pay tables."
> >
> >
> > I've deleted Frank Kneeland's "What Would It Take???" post on vpFREE and re-posted it on FREEvpFREE.
> >
> > Formulating the required parameters to mathematically prove, or disprove,the randomness of video poker offerings is an interesting and important subject, but it may not have widespread interest for vpFREE members and it would likely prove to be disruptive.
> >
>
