4 team parlays around the valley range from 10-to 1 to 12-1. Don't be fooled when you see 12 for 1, usually on parlay cards.---12 for 1 is actually 11 to 1. Same at the crap table---8 for 1( hard 4) is actually 7 to 1.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@..." <rob.singer1111@> wrote:
> >
> > Mickey:
> >
> > I made just a few bets on sports this year--all NFL. I'm no guru on the subject, but I've done quite well spending some time studying the teams & using my head along with gut feel. I'm just a straight bettor who doesn't shop lines, do middles or any of the things professional handicappers do. The problem is, I don't really know what my win % is based on: dollars won or bets won....and how does that big they get figure in?
> >
> > I bet only 2 weekends this year--one in Dec. and one in Jan. Last weekend I made six $100 bets on games and overs/unders, and I won 3 of them. But in Dec. I felt very strong about four games and put $6k on a four team parlay--and won.
> >
> > Is that considered 4 for 4 or just a single win?
> >
> Hi, Rob. If you went 3 for 6 on the $100 bets then you broke even on your picks but would have lost a little money to the juice.
>
> Parleys are different from straight bets. Percentagewise they're considered much tougher bets. I don't know what a 4 for 4 pays but the odds of hitting it are based on it being a coin flip as to whether each of your picks cover. So it would be .5 X .5 X .5 X .5. That's a win percentage of 6.25%. So the chances of hitting a four teamer are 1 in 16.
>
> If the payoff is:
>
> 15, the expectation is 93.75%
> 14, the expectation is 87.50%
> 13, the expectation is 81.25%
> 12, the expectation is 75.00%
>
> When I was in Nevada I stayed away from straight handicapping because I knew I didn't know anything about it. But I did learn a few tricks like middling and scalping.
>
> And I knew about lines moving toward the favorite caused by recreational bettors pounding the favorite just before gametime. In those spots I took the dog and the extra points.
>
> As far as tracking your win/loss, probably the best thing to do is start a spreadsheet. And I would have a different spreadsheet for each bet type and size or else the stats will be skewed. You can probably buy stuff like that at Gambler's Book Store.
>
> Take care
>
