Is it me, or does it seem strange to see Mickey and Rob having a civil conversation. If memory serves me, it was otherwise.
From: Mickey
Sent: Friday, January 13, 2012 2:48 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012
--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, "mailto:rob.singer1111%40yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:
>
> Mickey:
>
> I made just a few bets on sports this year--all NFL. I'm no guru on the subject, but I've done quite well spending some time studying the teams & using my head along with gut feel. I'm just a straight bettor who doesn't shop lines, do middles or any of the things professional handicappers do. The problem is, I don't really know what my win % is based on: dollars won or bets won....and how does that big they get figure in?
>
> I bet only 2 weekends this year--one in Dec. and one in Jan. Last weekend I made six $100 bets on games and overs/unders, and I won 3 of them. But in Dec. I felt very strong about four games and put $6k on a four team parlay--and won.
>
> Is that considered 4 for 4 or just a single win?
>
Hi, Rob. If you went 3 for 6 on the $100 bets then you broke even on your picks but would have lost a little money to the juice.
Parleys are different from straight bets. Percentagewise they're considered much tougher bets. I don't know what a 4 for 4 pays but the odds of hitting it are based on it being a coin flip as to whether each of your picks cover. So it would be .5 X .5 X .5 X .5. That's a win percentage of 6.25%. So the chances of hitting a four teamer are 1 in 16.
If the payoff is:
15, the expectation is 93.75%
14, the expectation is 87.50%
13, the expectation is 81.25%
12, the expectation is 75.00%
When I was in Nevada I stayed away from straight handicapping because I knew I didn't know anything about it. But I did learn a few tricks like middling and scalping.
And I knew about lines moving toward the favorite caused by recreational bettors pounding the favorite just before gametime. In those spots I took the dog and the extra points.
As far as tracking your win/loss, probably the best thing to do is start a spreadsheet. And I would have a different spreadsheet for each bet type and size or else the stats will be skewed. You can probably buy stuff like that at Gambler's Book Store.
Take care
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