just bookmarked this. Great post.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> What a stellar real life example of exactly what my big post this month was trying to get across. Our inherent inability to account for randomness. We shouldn't be too hard on ourselves...
>
> Almost from the first moment we start sucking air we are taught by people and life that behavior and results are inexorable intertwined. Study, do your homework, and you'll get a good grade. Ditch class and don't study and you'll fail. We are taught that success is usually the result of doing something right, and thus receive our mental marching orders for continuing the behavior. Then along comes something like gambling, where one can do everything right and fail, or one can screw up and succeed (at least in small timescales) and it puts a monkey wrench in every cognitive processes we have relied on all our lives to live. Our results tell us nothing (true) about whether or not we should continue or discontinue the behavior that spawned them. The trick is merely realizing how little results tell us and ignoring what seems like common sense.
>
> Not exactly a new concept:
>
> I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all. ~Ecclesiastes 9:11
>
> This is why if you wish to make good judgments about gambling and stay sane, (assuming you ever were) one has to make gambling about the journey, not the destination.
>
> It's a hard concept to understand, considering all one must unlearn to learn it.
>
> ~FK
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE Administrator" <vpfreeadmin@> wrote:
> >
> > Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 4 OCT 2011
> >
> > "Good Judgment Affected by Losing Streak"
> >
> > http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/1004.cfm
> >
> > <a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/1004.cfm">
> > http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/1004.cfm</a>
> >
> >
> > *************************************************
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> > of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
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> > *************************************************
> >
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