Thank you Coachvee and Dunbar. I ended up betting on Nehro to win based on your analysis and while I didn't win, the bet was sound and made the race more exciting. In addition an online book was returning $15 in casino chips on a $30 losing bet, so I feel that, with your assistance, I entered into a sound overlay.
David
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:
>
>> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@ wrote:
> >
> >
> > Hi Gang:
> > Here are my picks for tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
> > each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
> > Regards,
> > CoachVee
> > 1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
> > to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
> > style perfect for this race and breeding says he’ll love distance; picks up
> > Eclipse-winning jock.
> > 2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
> > when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
> > preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
> > 3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
> > including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
> > charging hard through stretch.
> > 4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
> > in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
> > with too much to do.
> > LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
> > hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
> > surface.
> >
>
> I agree with your high opinion of Nehro and Midnight Interlude. They would be co-favorites in my own line at about 9-1.
>
> I like your longshot, too, though your comment "handles any surface" is a stretch.
>
> IMO, Dialed In is a strong bet against. I can not see any reason for Dialed In to be favored over 5-6 other horses. In addition to Nehro and Midnight Inerlude, I think ArchArchArch, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford have a better chance to win than Dialed In.
>
> Having an overbet horse like Dialed In and, to a lesser extent, Twice The Appeal (vastly overbet because of Borel riding), makes it possible that many of the other horses will be bettable.
>
> It's impossible for me to guage Master of Hounds' chances. But DRF's Mike Welch, who's a pretty good judge of horses' motion, said he looked awful when he finally got to the Churchill track.
>
> My own longshot recommendation would be Comma To The Top. I seem to be alone in thinking this horse has a shot to win it. He is currently the longest odds in early betting.
>
> --Dunbar
>
